Despite Bernie Sanders great showing today (winning the states of Alaska & Washington, Hawaii voting hasn’t concluded as of the publication of this post, but Bernie will probably win there too.) It seems highly likely that Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump will be the nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties. It’s been more than 160 years since a person from outside the Democratic or Republican parties has been elected as POTUS when Zachary Taylor of the Whig Party won in 1848. (He died in office, so the last Whig president was Millard Fillmore.)
We previously asked who you would prefer for president. (You seem to agree with voters in Alaska and Washington.) El oso said “I guess the mainstream W&T permas are all on board thinking Hillary is going to win. I put her chances at 50/50 vs. Trump…”
Mormon Heretic responded “I suspect it is not just the permas who think that Hillary will win. I think our readers do too. Sounds like a wonderful poll question so we can find out for sure!”
So here you go! Look into your crystal ball!
[poll id=564]
Wheat & Tares 
I put the chances of The Donald and Hillary each at around 35-40%. Cruz is next in the 15-20% range. The other possibilities are split between republican nominees from a contested convention, democrat replacements for Hillary if her legal trouble gets too large and maybe a 3rd party candidate.
The Romney (and others) plan to support different republican candidates in different state primaries seems like a warm up plan for a 3rd party run. A republican who is more favored by the establishment could potentially campaign only in certain states and tell supporters in NY, NJ, parts of the south, etc. to vote for Trump. This is unlikely, but still possible. I give it a 1% chance at the moment.
El oso, do the poll results surprise you?
I’m curious who the “something else” is that people think will win.
I am almost certain it will be Hillary. It seems likely it will come down to Hillary and Trump, just because of the numbers (as the OP says). Trump has inflicted so much damage on his own campaign and, apparently, isn’t listening to his advisors (if he has any). He just won’t shut up.
From my perspective, Hillary is the best candidate by far out of the entire field. She’s intelligent, tough, sensible, balanced, and experienced with domestic and foreign issues. I can actually visualize Hillary running the country. I can’t see that for any of the other candidates. They are all lightweights. And Trump is just plain crazy.
I was surprised to learn that Hillary, as a teenager, supported Barry Goldwater in ’64.
None of the five major candidates have strong leadership qualities that we so desperately need as a country.
I put “someone else” because I still think Bernie is going to pull it off. If it does come down to Clinton v Trump, I am having a really hard time calling it!
(I personally would vote for Clinton, but Trump has this baffling avalanche of support that has left me completely uncertain of my ability to predict how people think/vote.
Ever since Trump declared his candidacy, the polls have shown him leading the Republican race. The pundits (and I) assumed that his lead was unsustainable and that he would self-destruct. He has not, despite his best efforts. Bottom line–the polls were right and the rest of us were wrong.
Now the polls show Hillary (and Bernie) beating Trump easily. Why doubt them now?
I think the “First Woman President” will have too much momentum come the fall time frame not to come to fruition. Besides, women hate Trump for the most part and that will ultimately carry the day for anyone who runs against Trump.
And everyone hates Cruz…..
I vote “someone else.” The Donald won’t reach the 1,237 delegates needed outright, and Cruz will come out winner at a contested Republican convention.
Hillary will beat Bernie, but in the general campaign, stories of corruption and alleged illegal activities will weigh her down just enough to give Cruz the election.
I feel the need to apologize to the many readers in other countries. How weary they must be of USAmerican political spats.
And not sure what this has to do with LDS issues.
I am not sure how anyone can refer to Kasich as a “lightweight.” He strikes me as the most qualified by far. He has both the administrative experience of being a governor (which Clinton lacks) but also had a few decades in Congress, with a reputation for being very effective and willing to reach across the aisle. He served 18 years on the House Armed Services Committee (good qualification for a Commander in Chief!) and 6 years as chairman of the powerful House Budget Committee. He still has colleagues on the Hill who think well of him.
As governor of Ohio, he defied partisan loyalists and put the well-being of his people first, by accepting Medicaid expansion. And the economy in Ohio is doing better than in neighboring rust-belt states. In Congress, he played an active role in passage of both welfare reform and the Balanced Budget Act of 1997.
And I love how he has declined to get involved in the mudslinging of the other candidates.
I cannot figure out why he is not doing better, and what that says about USAmerican voters…
Some polling suggests that Kasich would beat Clinton in the general election, if the Republican establishment could find a way to give him the nomination. Until the convention is over, we can’t really say who the candidates would be.
Naismith, the First Presidency sent a letter to Utah congregations ordering wards to cancel all scheduled activities on March 22nd to allow members to participate in Republican/Democrat caucuses. They also reacted sharply to an anti-Muslim statement by Trump a few months back. Add in Mitt Romney’s public denunciation of Trump and the ridiculous ensuing references to the White Horse Prophecy and you definitely get some Mormon-related interest in this embarrassing spectacle.
MH,
Someone else is in the range I predict for Ted Cruz. Obviously, most W&T participants read the current polls and see Hillary with the lead. She is getting destroyed in many states by Bernie, but is still maintaining a large (unelected) delegate lead. She is a terrible campaigner and has political baggage like the primadonna she is. Also, Trump is very good at two things pertinent to political campaigns, self-promotion and tearing down the opposition. There are plenty of target issues for Trump if he is facing Hillary. As long as she avoids major legal trouble, I still give her the advantage over Trump, but not overwhelmingly so.
I don’t know who will win.
I can tell you who will lose- the American people.
“the First Presidency sent a letter to Utah congregations ordering wards to cancel all scheduled activities on March 22nd to allow members to participate in Republican/Democrat caucuses.”
Thanks for the insight, I had no idea that the church got involved that way.
Do they ever do that in other locales?
el oso,
“most W&T participants read the current polls and see Hillary with the lead.” The polls have had Trump in the lead for months and have been correct. Polls have also shown Hillary in the lead for months. I’m not sure where you get off saying they’re inaccurate. They seem to be measuring sentiments of Trump and Clinton quite well.
Naismith, The church got heavily involved in California during Prop 8, and I know they encouraged bishops to encourage their congregations how to vote. They encouraged people to put signs in their yards over the issue (some opponents of the church called for removal of tax exempt status because they felt the church went too far.) I didn’t live in California, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they canceled church meetings to make sure everyone voted.
The were also heavily involved in Hawaii in the 1990s gay marriage fight, and are pretty heavily involved in lobbying the Utah legislature. They tried to torpedo the medical marijuana bill, and though it succeeded in the senate, the House rejected it largely due to LDS pressure.
They pick their battles, and when they do, are quite effective campaigners on issues they oppose. A decade ago, Gov Jon Huntsman’s push to relax liquor laws would not have passed without LDS Church support.
mh: I worry that a terrorist attack within the United States – say August or early September – could well tip the election to Trump. Times of fear come upon us suddenly and too many look to an authoritarian figure regardless of the consequences. I fear for our Republic.
MH,
I am not disputing the relative accuracy of the polls. All of them show Hillary leading in a head to head vs. Trump. If the election were those two nominees and held this week, I have no doubt that Hillary would win. I am just looking into the future where I see potential obstacles in the path of several candidates. The most recent seems to be the Sanders surge in the democrat primaries. If he keeps winning like last week Mrs. Clinton is in big trouble.
Yeah, everyone has been predicting Trump’s Demise for months. It hasn’t happened.
Naismith, I know every year close to election time a first presidency letter goes out in sacrament meetings (inside and outside Utah) encouraging citizens to vote and reminding members that church facilities are not to be used for political purposes. I don’t remember the church making a big deal about caucuses here in the past, but I’ve only lived back in Utah a couple years.
I honestly thought Trump would implode long before now. I don’t have any idea where this election is going.
Here’s some potential obstacles for Trump: http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/donald-trump-s-poll-numbers-collapse-general-election-looms-n548731
Funny April Fools prank: http://utahpoliticohub.com/mormon-church-clarifies-revelation-declaring-donald-trump-antichrist/