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The US presidential election is imminent. What outcome do you predict?
What outcome do you predict for the 2012 US presidential election? (choose one answer)
Tags: 2012 election, Democrat, Obama, poll, POTUS, Republican, romney, voting
This entry was posted on November 3, 2012 at 6:33 AM and is filed under Agency, Politics, Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
What is your prediction for the final Electoral count?
Some interesting maps to look at: See http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2012/ecalculator#?battleground and http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html
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Obama gets 303 electoral votes and 50% of the popular vote. (Romney has to split the other 50% with the minor candidates).
Democrats get 55 seats in the Senate. (Pickups in Indiana, Massachusetts, and Maine, plus either an upset pickup in Arizona or an upset hold in Nebraska or North Dakota.)
What I’m interested in is will the country purge the clown car extremists from the Tea Party in the House.
I think either Obama or Romney could do an effective job if there were some realists with some flexibility and a genuine interest in the future of the country to work with.
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I think Obama wins 290-248. Of course, I cheated and looked at http://www.politico.com/2012-election/swing-state/
I’d love to hear people in Ohio, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, NH, NC, Ohio, Va, and Wisconsin. It looks like voters in those states will decide the election. I have Obama winning Ohio and Nevada, Romney winning Florida, and the rest are too close to call.
CA will prove to be a surprise victory for Romney and will give him a decisive margin in the Electoral College. There will be an outcry that the election was stolen and mass unrest
Alice, I agree. However, I think only a Romney win will even make a dent in the hardened Tea Party. They will retrench if it’s Obama.
MH – I predict FL, PA (surprise), NV, IA, WI, CO to Romney. Obama will get VA (thanks to his deal with Lockheed) and OH. The rest are too close to call.
Douglas – interesting theory which would make Romney the second coming of Reagan, a mantle he would find too big to bear I think. Why do you think he can get CA? I really don’t see it. Reagan was Hollywood elite and ex Governor. That’s how the right can win CA. Romney doesn’t have that.
Hawkgrrrl- I wish I saw Romney bringing the Tea Party extremists into line. In fact, I think they’ve got the ring through his nose or he wouldn’t have taken many of the extreme positions that have hurt him so badly in this cycle of primary and presidential election campaigns. They haven’t responded to the rest of the GOP and I don’t see them being more responsive to Romney.
Of course, if there’s an Obama victory, they’ll attempt to retrench. The only hope is that the electorate recognizes that extremism that lacks pragmatism has been and will continue to be counter productive for the nation and retires them by the ballot.
I’m not expecting that either but I can hope, can’t I?
Alice, yeah, Tea Party is a problem either way. Romney had to court them to get this far, but he’s not one of them. They would doubtless turn on him also, but as the GOP guy, he’s the only one with any chance to bridge the divide and get anything done. Obama is too polarizing. We need a skillful flip flopper.
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We need a “skillful flip flopper”?????
We need someone with the character to stick to their guns and provide leadership. Sadly, I think Romney made his choice to sell his ideals out a long time ago. Not unique for politicians but let’s not kid ourselves about what he’s chosen to become.
I think he can do the job if he’s elected but I don’t think I can ever see him as a leader after the way I’ve already seen him pander to the temperature of the room. And I don’t think the Tea Party, once they’ve gotten him to heel, is going to change their mind about who’s on which end of the leash.
Apparently you feel differently. I hope you’re right.
Bill Clinton was ever bit of a panderer, if not more than Mitt. If Mitt can control the budget like Bill did, he will be a success. And I doubt that Mitt will have any scandals involving interns….
Alice, I agree we need a principled President who sticks to his guns. I think what Hawkgrrl means (feel free to correct me) is that we need a compromiser, someone who is willing to say “Here’s what I can’t do. What can’t you do?” and meet in the middle. Even if on Mavember 35th, 2004 he said he was against it. That’s what Bill Clinton and Newt Gingrich did to really rousing success.
On the Tea Party question, I don’t believe Romney is controlled by them. I think he had to swing right to get the GOP nomination from Rick “I don’t think life begins at conception, I KNOW it does!” Santorum. I don’t think that’s really Romney, any more than I believe Obama’s is the most open administration in history.
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Iowa City is pretty Democrat all the way, so I predict Iowa going to Obama unless Des Moines and the rest of the state goes Republican. Which I don’t see happening as Des Moines, and the other “big cities” have Democrat representatives. The only cities who would go to Mitt’s favor are too small to make a difference.
Romney wins 295, possibly 315 with Pennsylvania. House stays with R, Senate stays with D. Church gets into areas it wound not have otherwise, Romney makes cuts as planned and opposition grows against the church.
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Here’s a result I could tolerate: Romney wins, left-leaning civil libertarians resume protesting the war on terror and outrageous executive oversteps for which they’ve largely given Obama a pass and America actually has a real debate over whether to continue undermining its principles in the name of perpetual war against Muslims. Failing that, hopefully at least the popular and electoral votes disagree in order to highlight the idiocy of our system for presidential elections.
- Obama wins, barely, but by more than Bush “beat” Gore.
- Romney retires from the political scene.
- The country will continue to bounce back from Bush’s debacle and create 8-10 million jobs over the next 4 years (independent of whether Romney or Obama won).
- Republicans realize that they can’t be so far-right to win a national election – they need a more moderate person to have a chance.
- Jon Huntsman runs again in 2016, representing the more moderate and reasonable wing of the Republican party. He’d get my vote today if I could.
“The Redskins have been a professional football team since 1933, when the Boston Braves changed their name to the Boston Redskins. In 1936, the Redskins played their first game during an election year. It’s likely no one noticed at the time, but the squad’s performance in its last home game before Election Day soon became arguably the best indicator of who would win the presidential race. A Redskins win meant the incumbent party would stay put. A Redskins loss meant the White House would change parties. With only one exception — 2004 — this trend has held in every election cycle. So, tune in Sunday to see who will win Tuesday. Then impress all your not-in-the-know friends with your prognosticating prowess. The Skins are 3.5 point favorites, so President Obama has got to like his chances.”
Final: Carolina Panthers 21; Washington Redskins 13. Romney landslide. :D
And the ONLY good thing about the Redskins’ sad performance.
Molly – that is exactly what I mean!
Mike S – I too preferred Huntsman, but whatchya gonna do? They pick who they pick. I also preferred Hillary to Obama, but I voted for him over a Palin VP.
Personally, I’m curious to see what post-election Romney does with his life. Possibilities might include: (1) Far-away church leadership position, ducking the political limelight; (2) Supposed “return” (as if he ever truly left) to Bain; (3) Pathologically-egoistic rejection of the “you lost, so bugger off” rule, causing him to start his 2016 POTUS campaign on November 7th; (4) CEO of Glenn Beck’s business/media schemes.
I’m fairly certain Romney won’t be the next “Failed Politician Turned FOX Commentator.” He’s never had the necessary cred with right wing extremists for that gig.
#18:Nick, What__ no GA-post? I can see a lot of Mormons open to that.
“- Republicans realize that they can’t be so far-right to win a national election – they need a more moderate person to have a chance.”
You mean like John McCain or bob Dole? Real winners there.
Romney will be our 45 th president. You wanna put $10,000 on it?
DIRECT FROM CAESAR’S PALACE
A Las Vegas “odds maker” gives his reasons for big win by Romney in November. This is an interesting analysis.
Most political predictions are made by biased pollsters, pundits, or prognosticators who are either rooting for Republicans or Democrats.
I am neither. I am a former Libertarian Vice Presidential nominee, and a well-known Vegas odds maker, with one of the most accurate records of predicting political races.
But as an odds maker with a pretty remarkable track record of picking political races, I play no favorites. I simply use common sense to call them as I see them. Back in late December I released my New Year’s Predictions. I predicted back then – before a single GOP primary had been held, (with Romney trailing for months to almost every GOP competitor from Rick Perry to Herman Cain to Newt) – that Romney would easily rout his competition to win the GOP nomination by a landslide. I also predicted that the Presidential race between Obama and Romney would be very close until election day. But that on election day Romney would win by a landslide similar to Reagan-Carter in 1980.
Understanding history, today I am even more convinced of a resounding Romney victory. Thirty-two (32) years ago at this moment in time, Reagan was losing by 9 points to Carter. Romney is right now running even in polls. So why do most pollsters give Obama the edge?
First, most pollsters are missing one ingredient; – common sense. Here is my gut instinct. Not one American who voted for McCain 4 years ago will switch to Obama. Not one in all the land. But many millions of people who voted for an unknown Obama 4 years ago are angry, disillusioned, turned off, or scared about the future. Voters know Obama now – and that is a bad harbinger. Now to an analysis of the voting blocks that matter in U.S. politics:
**Black voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. His endorsement of gay marriage has alienated many black church-going Christians. He may get 88% of their vote instead of the 96% he got in 2008. This is not good news for Obama.
**Jewish voters. Obama has been weak in his support of Israel . Many Jewish voters and big donors are angry and disappointed. I predict Obama’s Jewish support drops from 78% in 2008 to the low 60′s. This is not good news for Obama.
**Youth voters. Obama’s biggest and most enthusiastic believers from 4 years ago have graduated into a job market from hell. Young people are disillusioned, frightened, and broke- a bad combination. The enthusiasm is long gone. Turnout will be much lower among young voters, as will actual voting percentages. This is not good news for Obama.
**Catholic voters. Obama won a majority of Catholics in 2008. That won’t happen again. Out of desperation to please women, Obama went to war with the Catholic Church over contraception. Now he is being sued by the Catholic Church. Majority lost. This is not good news for Obama.
**Small Business owners. Because I ran for Vice President last time around, and I’m a small businessman myself, I know literally thousands of small business owners. At least 40% of them in my circle of friends, fans and supporters voted for Obama 4 years ago to give someone different a chance. As I warned them that he would pursue a war on capitalism and demonize anyone who owned a business…that he’d support unions over the private sector in a big way…that he’d overwhelm the economy with spending and debt; my friends didn’t listen. Four years later, I can’t find one person in my circle of small business owner friends voting for Obama. Not one. This is not good news for Obama.
**Blue collar working class whites. Do I need to say a thing? White working class voters are about as happy with Obama as Boston Red Sox fans feel about the New York Yankees. This is not good news for Obama.
**Suburban moms. The issue isn’t about contraception, it’s having a job to pay for contraception. Obama’s economy frightens these moms. They are worried about putting food on the table. They fear for their children’s future. This is not good news for Obama.
**Military Veterans. McCain won this group by 10 points. Romney is winning by 24 points. The more our military vets got to see of Obama, the more they disliked him. This is not good news for Obama.
Add it up. Is there one major group where Obama has gained since 2008? Will anyone in America wake up on election day saying, I didn’t vote for Obama 4 years ago, but he’s done such a fantastic job, I can’t wait to vote for him today? Does anyone feel that a vote for Obama makes their job more secure?
Forget the polls. My gut instincts as a Vegas odds maker and common sense small businessman, tell me this will be a historic landslide and a world-class repudiation of Obama’s radical and risky socialist agenda. It’s Reagan-Carter all over again.
But I’ll give Obama credit for one thing – he is living proof that familiarity breeds contempt.
I see Obama getting 280-300 E-College votes for his win. Senate to Ds, House to Rs, each on weak wins.
#19: Bob, I agree that many LDS would be “open to” Romney as a general authority, but I doubt that would happen–at least for several years down the road. He’s been too high profile, and frankly, I think his honesty/integrity has been too much under attack (rightly or wrongly) for the LDS FP to feel they were “sending the right message” by calling him at this time.
They are not going to put a U.S. president in as a G.A. And, they would not put a former U.S. president as a GA, it would be too controversial.
Romney = 45
When LDS general authorities are publicly revealed as habitual liars, they’re released to “emeritus” status, not promoted.
Romney = Lying, Tax-Cheating, Bigot
..but, the next POTUS
What outcome do you predict?
So are we going to declare a winning prediction here or not?